The 36th issue of Bennett's Five Links.
My own short thoughts on the article and the video are as follows:
I’m less convinced at the idea of some supermodel that can account for all variables that go into the effectiveness of a modern society. And so although it’s curious that their models all seem to suggest a converging decline somewhere around the year 2040, I just don’t buy that level of accuracy.
I’m much more convinced however at the way the model highlights how poorly our capitalist society addresses the tragedy of the commons. In my experience, in our society if a problem does not belong to an individual it may as well not exist. I’m not surprised then at the high-level rationale underpinning their models. At some point, we run out of exploitable natural resources (whether that’s farmable land or clean water or who knows what), birth-rates decline, and less workers are available to maintain productive output. Conflict ensues.
It is interesting to hear the video note that the way our society has progressed since the original study in the 1970s closely follows the downfall predictions in many of their models.
I can’t help but think of the current buzz around town for a ‘clean green hydrogen energy future’. The video talks of the models’ prediction of an increase in innovation due to a ‘back against the wall’ style burst of motivation to bring about change. I guess time will tell whether we humans figure it all out before it’s too late.